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Manchester City vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
E. Haaland 25', 13' (pen)
J. Stones 5'
K. Ịheanachọ 75'
4/15/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 31Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 173+ matches

Manchester City60%
×Draw20%
Leicester20%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
2.15
Leicester
1.15

Manchester City creates 87% more chances

Season form · 202 home / 173 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.68
Leicester
1.46

allows per match

Manchester City
0.84
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
80%
Manchester City or Leicester
80%
Draw or Leicester
40%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
37%
Leicester wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
88%
Manchester City 2+ goals
63%
Manchester City 3+ goals
36%
Leicester 1+ goals
68%
Leicester 2+ goals
32%
Leicester 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
75%
Leicester (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.84 · 202 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 173 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.68 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.15

Leicester attack 1.46 + Manchester City defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manchester City scores more
60%
level
20%
Leicester scores more
20%

Manchester City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
E. HaalandManchester CityManchester City · F
8.2

Match Events

5'
J. Stones↳ Rodri
12'
Jack GrealishPenalty confirmed
13'
E. HaalandPenalty
25'
E. Haaland↳ K. De Bruyne
45'
Bernardo Silva
46'
J. Álvarez← E. Haaland
46'
M. Akanji← J. Stones
46'
K. Ịheanachọ← J. Vardy
46'
L. Thomas← V. Kristiansen
53'
K. Phillips← Rodri
62'
C. Palmer← K. De Bruyne
62'
N. Mendy← Y. Tielemans
62'
D. Praet← K. Dewsbury-Hall
74'
Sergio Gómez← J. Grealish
75'
K. Ịheanachọ
87'
P. Daka← W. Ndidi
89'
Çağlar Söyüncü

Possession

71%Manchester

Shots

12Manchester

Pass accuracy

53%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterLeicester
Overview
71%Possession29%
12Total Shots11
2.06Expected Goals (xG)2.36
6Corners2
8Fouls8
Shots
12Total Shots11
4On Target4
5Off Target4
3Blocked3
7Inside Box8
5Outside Box3
Passing
71%Possession29%
754Total Passes317
695Accurate Passes254
92%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls8
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides3

Premier League: Manchester City 3–1 Leicester

Manchester City beat Leicester 3-1 in Premier League on April 15, 2023.

Goals: J. Stones (5'), E. Haaland (13' pen, 25'), K. Ịheanachọ (75').

Manchester City controlled possession (71%) and registered 12 shots to 11.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.