Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Manchester City vs Leicester — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
6 – 3
HT: 4 – 0
Leicester
Leicester
R. Sterling 87', 25' (pen)
Aymeric Laporte 69'
İ. Gündoğan 21'
R. Mahrez 14' (pen)
K. De Bruyne 5'
K. Ịheanachọ 65'
A. Lookman 59'
J. Maddison 55'
12/26/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 19Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 170+ matches

Manchester City60%
×Draw20%
Leicester19%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
2.16
Leicester
1.14

Manchester City creates 89% more chances

Season form · 196 home / 170 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.71
Leicester
1.45

allows per match

Manchester City
0.83
Leicester
1.61

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par
Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Leicester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
81%
Manchester City or Leicester
80%
Draw or Leicester
40%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
37%
Leicester wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
88%
Manchester City 2+ goals
63%
Manchester City 3+ goals
36%
Leicester 1+ goals
68%
Leicester 2+ goals
32%
Leicester 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
76%
Leicester (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.83 · 196 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.61 · 170 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.71 + Leicester defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.16

Leicester attack 1.45 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Manchester City scores more
60%
level
20%
Leicester scores more
19%

Manchester City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
R. SterlingManchester CityManchester City · F
8.7

Match Events

5'
K. De Bruyne↳ Fernandinho
13'
Aymeric LaportePenalty awarded
14'
R. MahrezPenalty
21'
İ. Gündoğan
25'
R. SterlingPenalty
45'
Jannik Vestergaard
46'
T. Castagne← Ayoze Pérez
55'
J. Maddison↳ K. Ịheanachọ
59'
A. Lookman↳ K. Ịheanachọ
65'
K. Ịheanachọ
69'
Aymeric Laporte↳ R. Mahrez
71'
P. Foden← K. De Bruyne
71'
H. Choudhury← Y. Tielemans
75'
James Maddison
87'
R. Sterling↳ Rúben Dias
90+1'
Fernandinho

Possession

72%Manchester

Shots

17Manchester

Pass accuracy

52%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterLeicester
Overview
72%Possession28%
17Total Shots14
14Corners4
11Fouls9
Shots
17Total Shots14
9On Target8
3Off Target5
5Blocked1
12Inside Box10
5Outside Box4
Passing
72%Possession28%
736Total Passes289
693Accurate Passes251
94%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls9
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Leicester

Manchester City beat Leicester 6-3 in Premier League on December 26, 2021.

Goals: K. De Bruyne (5'), R. Mahrez (14' pen), İ. Gündoğan (21'), R. Sterling (25' pen, 87'), J. Maddison (55'), A. Lookman (59'), K. Ịheanachọ (65'), Aymeric Laporte (69').

Manchester City controlled possession (72%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.