Leicester 0–2 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Leicester

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Manchester City

Gabriel Jesus 74'

B. Mendy 58'

4/3/2021

Premier League · Round 30King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Leicester29%

×Draw25%

Manchester City46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.56

Leicester

1.17

Manchester City

1.56

Manchester City creates 33% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 31 away

1.14

creates per match

1.76

1.35

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Leicester

1.14

Manchester City

1.76

allows per match

Leicester

1.35

Manchester City

1.21

+0.03on par

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Leicester+0.03on par

Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

54%

Leicester or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

71%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

11%

Manchester City wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

69%

Leicester 2+ goals

33%

Leicester 3+ goals

11%

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

46%

Manchester City 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

38%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 6 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.14 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Leicester defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Leicester scores more

29%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

46%

Manchester City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

K. De Bruyne

Manchester City · M

7.9

Match Events

32'

Wilfred Ndidi

58'

B. Mendy

63'

R. Sterling← S. Agüero

71'

Ricardo Pereira← M. Albrighton

72'

J. Maddison← K. Iheanacho

73'

Ederson

74'

Gabriel Jesus↳ R. Sterling

79'

Ferran Torres← R. Mahrez

82'

Fernandinho

83'

N. Mendy← W. Ndidi

87'

Daniel Amartey

88'

P. Foden← K. De Bruyne

90'

Rodri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterManchester

Overview

43%Possession57%

5Total Shots11

1Corners1

13Fouls12

Shots

5Total Shots11

2On Target4

2Off Target6

1Blocked1

3Inside Box9

2Outside Box2

Passing

43%Possession57%

452Total Passes571

374Accurate Passes502

83%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1