Manchester City 5–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

5 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Leicester

S. Agüero 90', 77', 53', 48'

R. Sterling 3'

J. Vardy 24'

2/10/2018

Premier League · Round 27Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Manchester City56%

×Draw21%

Leicester23%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.29

Manchester City

2.11

Leicester

1.29

Manchester City creates 64% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 9 away

2.11

creates per match

1.65

0.94

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Manchester City

2.11

Leicester

1.65

allows per match

Manchester City

0.94

Leicester

2.11

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.32scores more

Leicester-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

77%

Manchester City or Leicester

79%

Draw or Leicester

44%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

34%

Leicester wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

88%

Manchester City 2+ goals

62%

Manchester City 3+ goals

35%

Leicester 1+ goals

72%

Leicester 2+ goals

37%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

71%

Leicester (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.11, concedes 0.94 · 37 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.65, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.11 + Leicester defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.11

Leicester attack 1.65 + Manchester City defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Manchester City scores more

56%

level

21%

Leicester scores more

23%

Manchester City at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Agüero

Manchester City · F

10.0

Match Events

3'

R. Sterling↳ K. De Bruyne

24'

J. Vardy

46'

D. Simpson← Adrien Silva

48'

S. Agüero↳ K. De Bruyne

53'

S. Agüero↳ K. De Bruyne

62'

K. Iheanacho← B. Chilwell

62'

R. Mahrez← F. Diabaté

65'

71'

73'

77'

80'

P. Foden← Fernandinho

81'

J. Stones← N. Otamendi

83'

83'

89'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLeicester

Overview

70%Possession30%

19Total Shots2

8Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

19Total Shots2

11On Target2

6Off Target0

2Blocked0

14Inside Box2

5Outside Box0

Passing

70%Possession30%

705Total Passes288

616Accurate Passes193

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2