Manchester City 3–2 Leeds: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Leeds

P. Foden 90', 1'

J. Gvardiol 25'

L. Nmecha 68'

D. Calvert-Lewin 49'

11/29/2025

Premier League · Round 13Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Manchester City57%

×Draw22%

Leeds21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.08

Manchester City

1.95

Leeds

1.08

Manchester City creates 81% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 25 away

2.08

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Manchester City

2.08

Leeds

1.17

allows per match

Manchester City

1.00

Leeds

1.82

+0.31scores more than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.31scores more

Leeds-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

79%

Manchester City or Leeds

78%

Draw or Leeds

43%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

34%

Leeds wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

86%

Manchester City 2+ goals

58%

Manchester City 3+ goals

31%

Leeds 1+ goals

66%

Leeds 2+ goals

29%

Leeds 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

74%

Leeds (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.82 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Leeds defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.95

Leeds attack 1.17 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Manchester City scores more

57%

level

22%

Leeds scores more

21%

Manchester City at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

P. Foden↳ M. Nunes

25'

J. Gvardiol↳ N. O'Reilly

46'

D. Calvert-Lewin← D. James

46'

49'

55'

57'

58'

66'

68'

69'

G. Gudmundsson← J. Justin

75'

R. Cherki← T. Reijnders

82'

N. Okafor← L. Nmecha

87'

Gianluigi Donnarumma

89'

O. Marmoush← B. Silva

90+6'

J. Stones← J. Doku

90+2'

B. Aaronson← A. Tanaka

90'

P. Foden↳ R. Cherki

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLeeds

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots9

3.10Expected Goals (xG)1.54

8Corners1

17Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots9

9On Target4

3Off Target3

6Blocked2

14Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

62%Possession38%

561Total Passes348

495Accurate Passes265

88%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

0.68Goals Prevented0.68

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides4