Leeds 0–1 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Leeds

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Manchester City

A. Semenyo 45'

2/28/2026

Premier League · Round 28Elland Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Leeds35%

×Draw25%

Manchester City41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeedsExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.54

Leeds

1.40

Manchester City

1.54

Manchester City creates 10% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 31 away

1.59

creates per match

1.76

1.31

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Leeds

1.59

Manchester City

1.76

allows per match

Leeds

1.31

Manchester City

1.21

-0.13scores less than expected

finishing

-0.21scores less than expected

finishing

Leeds-0.13scores less

Manchester City-0.21scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leeds ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Leeds or draw

59%

Leeds or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

65%

Winning margin

Leeds wins by 2+

16%

Manchester City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Leeds 1+ goals

75%

Leeds 2+ goals

41%

Leeds 3+ goals

17%

Manchester City 1+ goals

79%

Manchester City 2+ goals

45%

Manchester City 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Leeds (draw refunded)

46%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leeds at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 24 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.21 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leeds attack 1.59 + Manchester City defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.40

Manchester City attack 1.76 + Leeds defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Leeds scores more

35%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

41%

Manchester City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

A. Semenyo↳ R. Ait-Nouri

65'

L. Nmecha← B. Aaronson

68'

Savinho← O. Marmoush

70'

T. Reijnders← N. O'Reilly

75'

76'

85'

87'

87'

88'

N. Ake← R. Cherki

90+2'

Savinho

90+2'

Rayan Aït-Nouri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeedsManchester

Overview

33%Possession67%

14Total Shots14

1.49Expected Goals (xG)2.00

5Corners3

10Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots14

2On Target5

7Off Target5

5Blocked4

7Inside Box11

7Outside Box3

Passing

33%Possession67%

311Total Passes655

229Accurate Passes587

74%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.47Goals Prevented0.47

Discipline

10Fouls8

0Yellow Cards3

1Offsides4