Manchester City 2–1 Leeds: Result & Stats

Manchester City

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Leeds

İ. Gündoğan 27', 19'

Rodrigo 85'

5/6/2023

Premier League · Round 35Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Manchester City55%

×Draw23%

Leeds22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchLeeds

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.11

Manchester City

1.87

Leeds

1.11

Manchester City creates 68% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

2.02

creates per match

1.21

1.02

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Manchester City

2.02

Leeds

1.21

allows per match

Manchester City

1.02

Leeds

1.72

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Manchester City+0.21scores more

Leeds-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Leeds →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

78%

Manchester City or Leeds

77%

Draw or Leeds

45%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

31%

Leeds wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

85%

Manchester City 2+ goals

56%

Manchester City 3+ goals

29%

Leeds 1+ goals

67%

Leeds 2+ goals

30%

Leeds 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

71%

Leeds (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.02 · 26 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.72 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.02 + Leeds defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.87

Leeds attack 1.21 + Manchester City defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manchester City scores more

55%

level

23%

Leeds scores more

22%

Manchester City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

İ. Gündoğan

Manchester City · M

8.9

Match Events

19'

İ. Gündoğan↳ R. Mahrez

27'

İ. Gündoğan↳ R. Mahrez

45+2'

Wilfried Gnonto

54'

K. Walker← N. Aké

58'

S. Greenwood← Marc Roca

58'

Rodrigo← W. Gnonto

65'

C. Summerville← J. Harrison

71'

Rodrigo

80'

P. Struijk← A. Forshaw

80'

B. Aaronson← P. Bamford

85'

Rodrigo

87'

Bernardo Silva← J. Álvarez

90+3'

Weston McKennie

90+3'

Rodri← İ. Gündoğan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ManchesterLeeds

Overview

81%Possession19%

18Total Shots4

2.57Expected Goals (xG)0.23

10Corners1

3Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots4

6On Target2

10Off Target1

2Blocked1

9Inside Box4

9Outside Box0

Passing

81%Possession19%

873Total Passes201

795Accurate Passes120

91%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

3Fouls16

0Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3