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Manchester City vs Fulham — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Fulham
Fulham
2/11/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 26Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Manchester City55%
×Draw23%
Fulham22%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
1.85
Fulham
1.07

Manchester City creates 73% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.08
Fulham
1.15

allows per match

Manchester City
1.00
Fulham
1.63

finishing

Manchester City+0.31scores more
Fulham-0.23scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Fulham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
78%
Manchester City or Fulham
77%
Draw or Fulham
45%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
32%
Fulham wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
84%
Manchester City 2+ goals
55%
Manchester City 3+ goals
28%
Fulham 1+ goals
66%
Fulham 2+ goals
29%
Fulham 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
72%
Fulham (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.00 · 33 matches

Fulham away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.63 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.08 + Fulham defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.85

Fulham attack 1.15 + Manchester City defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Manchester City scores more
55%
level
23%
Fulham scores more
22%

Manchester City at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Possession

56%Manchester

Shots

13Manchester

Pass accuracy

52%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterFulham
Overview
56%Possession44%
13Total Shots14
1.37Expected Goals (xG)1.42
4Corners4
8Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots14
5On Target3
3Off Target8
5Blocked3
5Inside Box12
8Outside Box2
Passing
56%Possession44%
634Total Passes492
577Accurate Passes418
91%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
-1.38Goals Prevented-1.38
Discipline
8Fouls10
3Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Fulham

Manchester City beat Fulham 3-0 in Premier League on February 11, 2026.

Manchester City controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 14.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.