Fulham 1–2 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Fulham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Manchester City

Carlos Vinícius 15'

J. Álvarez 36'

E. Haaland 3' (pen)

4/30/2023

Premier League · Round 34Craven Cottage

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Fulham33%

×Draw25%

Manchester City42%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.49

Fulham

1.29

Manchester City

1.49

Manchester City creates 16% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

1.30

creates per match

1.78

1.20

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Fulham

1.30

Manchester City

1.78

allows per match

Fulham

1.20

Manchester City

1.27

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Fulham+0.26scores more

Manchester City-0.01on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

58%

Fulham or Manchester City

75%

Draw or Manchester City

67%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

14%

Manchester City wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

72%

Fulham 2+ goals

37%

Fulham 3+ goals

14%

Manchester City 1+ goals

77%

Manchester City 2+ goals

44%

Manchester City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

44%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 27 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.27 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.30 + Manchester City defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.29

Manchester City attack 1.78 + Fulham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fulham scores more

33%

level

25%

Manchester City scores more

42%

Manchester City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

B. Leno

Fulham · G

7.9

Match Events

3'

E. HaalandPenalty

15'

Carlos Vinícius↳ H. Wilson

21'

I. Diop← T. Ream

36'

J. Álvarez↳ R. Mahrez

58'

T. Cairney← Andreas Pereira

70'

Kenny Tete

70'

Jack Grealish

76'

D. James← B. De Cordova-Reid

76'

S. Lukić← H. Reed

76'

M. Solomon← H. Wilson

82'

P. Foden← R. Mahrez

82'

Bernardo Silva← J. Álvarez

90+8'

Kyle Walker

90+6'

Ederson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamManchester

Overview

37%Possession63%

4Total Shots12

0.19Expected Goals (xG)2.48

2Corners5

9Fouls10

Shots

4Total Shots12

1On Target9

1Off Target3

2Blocked0

1Inside Box11

3Outside Box1

Passing

37%Possession63%

373Total Passes645

303Accurate Passes560

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves0

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1