Fulham 4–5 Manchester City: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FulhamExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.48

Fulham

1.24

Manchester City

1.48

Manchester City creates 19% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

1.30

creates per match

1.77

1.20

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Fulham

1.30

Manchester City

1.77

allows per match

Fulham

1.20

Manchester City

1.18

+0.26scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Fulham+0.26scores more

Manchester City-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fulham ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fulham or draw

57%

Fulham or Manchester City

74%

Draw or Manchester City

68%

Winning margin

Fulham wins by 2+

13%

Manchester City wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Fulham 1+ goals

71%

Fulham 2+ goals

35%

Fulham 3+ goals

13%

Manchester City 1+ goals

77%

Manchester City 2+ goals

43%

Manchester City 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Fulham (draw refunded)

43%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fulham at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.20 · 27 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.77, concedes 1.18 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fulham attack 1.30 + Manchester City defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.24

Manchester City attack 1.77 + Fulham defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Fulham scores more

32%

level

26%

Manchester City scores more

43%

Manchester City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

E. Haaland↳ J. Doku

37'

T. Reijnders↳ E. Haaland

44'

P. Foden

45'

E. Smith Rowe↳ H. Wilson

46'

S. Chukwueze← S. Lukic

46'

T. Castagne← K. Tete

48'

P. Foden↳ E. Haaland

54'

S. BergeOwn goal

57'

A. Iwobi

64'

J. Stones← Nico

64'

Savinho← J. Doku

72'

S. Chukwueze

73'

J. Kusi Asare← R. Jimenez

74'

J. King← E. Smith Rowe

78'

S. Chukwueze

82'

Kevin← H. Wilson

82'

R. Cherki← T. Reijnders

90+5'

Rayan Cherki

90+7'

N. Ake← P. Foden

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FulhamManchester

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots11

0.91Expected Goals (xG)2.17

7Corners2

9Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots11

6On Target4

3Off Target3

3Blocked4

9Inside Box9

3Outside Box2

Passing

57%Possession43%

612Total Passes467

538Accurate Passes392

88%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

-2.09Goals Prevented-2.09

Discipline

9Fouls7

0Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1