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Manchester City vs Cardiff — Premier League 2026

Manchester City
Manchester City
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cardiff
Cardiff
L. Sané 44'
K. De Bruyne 6'
4/3/2019Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 33Etihad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Manchester City72%
×Draw18%
Cardiff10%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Manchester City
2.25
Cardiff
0.71

Manchester City creates 217% more chances

Season form · 201 home / 26 away

creates per match

Manchester City
2.68
Cardiff
0.58

allows per match

Manchester City
0.84
Cardiff
1.81

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw
90%
Manchester City or Cardiff
82%
Draw or Cardiff
28%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+
48%
Cardiff wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals
89%
Manchester City 2+ goals
65%
Manchester City 3+ goals
39%
Cardiff 1+ goals
51%
Cardiff 2+ goals
16%
Cardiff 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)
88%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.68, concedes 0.84 · 201 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.68 + Cardiff defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.25

Cardiff attack 0.58 + Manchester City defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Manchester City scores more
72%
level
18%
Cardiff scores more
10%

Manchester City at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
K. De BruyneManchester CityManchester City · M
8.8

Match Events

6'
K. De Bruyne↳ A. Laporte
8'
Joe Bennett
19'
K. Walker← O. Zinchenko
34'
Lee Peltier
44'
L. Sané↳ Gabriel Jesus
53'
Joe Ralls
60'
N. Mendez-Laing← Josh Murphy
81'
L. Bacuna← A. Gunnarsson
83'
B. Reid← Víctor Camarasa

Possession

78%Manchester

Shots

27Manchester

Pass accuracy

58%Manchester

Statistics

ManchesterCardiff
Overview
78%Possession22%
27Total Shots4
17Corners4
3Fouls7
Shots
27Total Shots4
11On Target1
14Off Target2
2Blocked1
15Inside Box2
12Outside Box2
Passing
78%Possession22%
676Total Passes185
618Accurate Passes123
91%Pass Accuracy66%
Goalkeeping
1Saves9
Discipline
3Fouls7
0Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Premier League: Manchester City 2–0 Cardiff

Manchester City beat Cardiff 2-0 in Premier League on April 3, 2019.

Goals: K. De Bruyne (6'), L. Sané (44').

Manchester City controlled possession (78%) and registered 27 shots to 4.

The match was played at Etihad Stadium in Manchester.