Cardiff 0–5 Manchester City: Result & Stats

Cardiff

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Manchester City

R. Mahrez 89', 67'

İ. Gündoğan 44'

Bernardo Silva 35'

S. Agüero 32'

9/22/2018

Premier League · Round 6Cardiff City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Cardiff18%

×Draw21%

Manchester City61%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CardiffExpected goals in this matchManchester City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

2.07

Cardiff

1.04

Manchester City

2.07

Manchester City creates 99% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 201 away

1.12

creates per match

1.99

2.15

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Cardiff

1.12

Manchester City

1.99

allows per match

Cardiff

2.15

Manchester City

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cardiff+0.00on par

Manchester City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cardiff ↓

Manchester City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Cardiff or draw

39%

Cardiff or Manchester City

79%

Draw or Manchester City

82%

Winning margin

Cardiff wins by 2+

7%

Manchester City wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Cardiff 1+ goals

65%

Cardiff 2+ goals

28%

Cardiff 3+ goals

9%

Manchester City 1+ goals

87%

Manchester City 2+ goals

61%

Manchester City 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Cardiff (draw refunded)

23%

Manchester City (draw refunded)

77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cardiff at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.15 · 26 matches

Manchester City away — creates 1.99, concedes 0.96 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cardiff attack 1.12 + Manchester City defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Manchester City attack 1.99 + Cardiff defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Cardiff scores more

18%

level

21%

Manchester City scores more

61%

Manchester City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

İ. Gündoğan

Manchester City · M

8.7

Match Events

32'

S. Agüero↳ Bernardo Silva

35'

Bernardo Silva↳ L. Sané

44'

İ. Gündoğan↳ R. Sterling

45'

Joe Ralls

51'

J. Richards← L. Peltier

60'

Fernandinho

61'

R. Mahrez← S. Agüero

63'

K. Zohorè← D. Ward

67'

R. Mahrez↳ İ. Gündoğan

69'

P. Foden← İ. Gündoğan

74'

J. Stones← Fernandinho

75'

Josh Murphy← J. Hoilett

89'

R. Mahrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CardiffManchester

Overview

21%Possession79%

2Total Shots21

1Corners9

6Fouls4

Shots

2Total Shots21

2On Target10

0Off Target4

0Blocked7

1Inside Box18

1Outside Box3

Passing

21%Possession79%

218Total Passes799

146Accurate Passes725

67%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls4

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1