Manchester City 4–2 Cardiff: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Manchester CityExpected goals in this matchCardiff

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.73

Manchester City

2.30

Cardiff

0.73

Manchester City creates 215% more chances

Season form · 196 home / 27 away

2.71

creates per match

0.63

0.83

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Manchester City

2.71

Cardiff

0.63

allows per match

Manchester City

0.83

Cardiff

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Manchester City+0.00on par

Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Manchester City ↓

Cardiff →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Manchester City or draw

90%

Manchester City or Cardiff

83%

Draw or Cardiff

27%

Winning margin

Manchester City wins by 2+

49%

Cardiff wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Manchester City 1+ goals

90%

Manchester City 2+ goals

67%

Manchester City 3+ goals

40%

Cardiff 1+ goals

52%

Cardiff 2+ goals

17%

Cardiff 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Manchester City (draw refunded)

88%

Cardiff (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Manchester City at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.83 · 196 matches

Cardiff away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.89 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Manchester City attack 2.71 + Cardiff defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.30

Cardiff attack 0.63 + Manchester City defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Manchester City scores more

73%

level

17%

Cardiff scores more

10%

Manchester City at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Manchester City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

E. Džeko↳ David Silva

29'

C. Noone↳ A. Gunnarsson

33'

Jesús Navas

62'

S. Agüero← Negredo

68'

C. Bellamy← P. Whittingham

68'

D. John← K. McNaughton

77'

Y. Touré↳ S. Agüero

78'

M. Eikrem← A. Gunnarsson

79'

S. Agüero↳ Y. Touré

80'

J. Milner← David Silva

82'

G. Clichy← Jesús Navas

90+3'

F. Campbell↳ M. Eikrem

Manchester

Cardiff

1

Marshall

6

Turner

25

▼

McNaughto

28

Catherine

4

Caulker

7

▼

Whittingh

8

Medel

18

Mutch

17

A

▼

Gunnarsso

16

⚽

Noone

10

⚽

1

4

26

5

13

14

21

A

▼

Silva

42

⚽A

Touré

15

⚽

▼

Navas

9

▼

Negredo

10

⚽

Džeko

62'▲S. Agüero←▼Negredo

80'▲J. Milner←▼David Silva

82'▲G. Clichy←▼Jesús Navas

Manchester City substitutes

16Agüero7Milner22Clichy6Lescott25Fernandinho30Pantilimon33Nastasić

68'▲C. Bellamy←▼P. Whittingham

68'▲D. John←▼K. McNaughton

78'▲M. Eikrem←▼A. Gunnarsson

Cardiff substitutes

39Bellamy42John15Eikrem5Hudson11Odemwingie13Kim32Lewis

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Cardiff

Manchester City beat Cardiff 4-2 in Premier League on January 18, 2014.

Goals: E. Džeko (14'), C. Noone (29'), Jesús Navas (33'), Y. Touré (77'), S. Agüero (79'), F. Campbell (90+3').

The match was played at Etihad Stadium (Manchester).

Manchester City vs Cardiff — Premier League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Manchester City vs Cardiff