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Malta vs Slovenia — Friendlies 2026

Malta
Malta
PST
22:00
Slovenia
Slovenia
5/25/2020FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 1Alnagea Staduim (Al Fashir)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Malta34%
×Draw28%
Slovenia38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malta
1.12
Slovenia
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 12 away

creates per match

Malta
1.16
Slovenia
1.17

allows per match

Malta
1.21
Slovenia
1.08

finishing

Malta+0.00on par
Slovenia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malta ↓

Slovenia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Malta or draw
62%
Malta or Slovenia
72%
Draw or Slovenia
66%

Winning margin

Malta wins by 2+
14%
Slovenia wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Malta 1+ goals
67%
Malta 2+ goals
31%
Malta 3+ goals
10%
Slovenia 1+ goals
70%
Slovenia 2+ goals
33%
Slovenia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Malta (draw refunded)
48%
Slovenia (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malta at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Slovenia away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malta attack 1.16 + Slovenia defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.12

Slovenia attack 1.17 + Malta defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Malta scores more
34%
level
28%
Slovenia scores more
38%

Slovenia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Slovenia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Malta host Slovenia

May 25, 2020: Malta take on Slovenia in Friendlies. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Malta host Slovenia at Alnagea Staduim (Al Fashir).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.