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Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF — Allsvenskan 2018

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
9/1/2024AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 21Eleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 124+ matches

Malmo FF50%
×Draw25%
Djurgardens IF26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
1.62
Djurgardens IF
1.09

Malmo FF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 124 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
2.17
Djurgardens IF
1.40

allows per match

Malmo FF
0.79
Djurgardens IF
1.07

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
74%
Malmo FF or Djurgardens IF
75%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
50%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
26%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
80%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
48%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
22%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
66%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
30%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
66%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.79 · 126 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.07 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 2.17 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.62

Djurgardens IF attack 1.40 + Malmo FF defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Malmo FF scores more
50%
level
25%
Djurgardens IF scores more
26%

Malmo FF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF

Malmo FF beat Djurgardens IF 4-0 in Allsvenskan on September 1, 2024.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.