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Malmo FF vs Djurgardens IF — Svenska Cupen 2019

Malmo FF
Malmo FF
Pens
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
5/1/2024Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · FinalsEleda Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Malmo FF41%
×Draw21%
Djurgardens IF38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Malmo FF
2.03
Djurgardens IF
1.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

creates per match

Malmo FF
3.24
Djurgardens IF
3.25

allows per match

Malmo FF
0.65
Djurgardens IF
0.81

finishing

Malmo FF+0.00on par
Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malmo FF ↓

Djurgardens IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Malmo FF or draw
62%
Malmo FF or Djurgardens IF
79%
Draw or Djurgardens IF
59%

Winning margin

Malmo FF wins by 2+
23%
Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Malmo FF 1+ goals
87%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
60%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
33%
Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
86%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
58%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Malmo FF (draw refunded)
52%
Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malmo FF at home — creates 3.24, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 3.25, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malmo FF attack 3.24 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 2.03

Djurgardens IF attack 3.25 + Malmo FF defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malmo FF scores more
41%
level
21%
Djurgardens IF scores more
38%

Malmo FF at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malmo FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Malmo FF 1–1 Djurgardens IF

Malmo FF and Djurgardens IF drew 1-1 in Svenska Cupen on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Eleda Stadion in Malmö.