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Djurgardens IF vs Malmo FF — Allsvenskan 2018

Djurgardens IF
Djurgardens IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Malmo FF
Malmo FF
4/17/2026AllsvenskanAllsvenskan · Round 33Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Djurgardens IF42%
×Draw25%
Malmo FF33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Djurgardens IF
1.49
Malmo FF
1.30

Djurgardens IF creates 15% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 126 away

creates per match

Djurgardens IF
1.83
Malmo FF
1.63

allows per match

Djurgardens IF
0.97
Malmo FF
1.15

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par
Malmo FF+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Malmo FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw
67%
Djurgardens IF or Malmo FF
75%
Draw or Malmo FF
58%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+
20%
Malmo FF wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals
77%
Djurgardens IF 2+ goals
44%
Djurgardens IF 3+ goals
19%
Malmo FF 1+ goals
73%
Malmo FF 2+ goals
37%
Malmo FF 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)
56%
Malmo FF (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.97 · 127 matches

Malmo FF away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 1.83 + Malmo FF defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.49

Malmo FF attack 1.63 + Djurgardens IF defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more
42%
level
25%
Malmo FF scores more
33%

Djurgardens IF at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Allsvenskan: Djurgardens IF 0–1 Malmo FF

Malmo FF beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 in Allsvenskan on April 17, 2026.

The match was played at 3Arena in Stockholm.