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Mallorca vs Valladolid — Segunda División 2018

Mallorca
Mallorca
Preview
15:00
Valladolid
Valladolid
8/16/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 1Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
Big match
52%
Mallorca
model favours
52%26%22%

30% of Mallorca’s goals come after the 75th minute

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Mallorca52%
×Draw26%
Valladolid22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mallorca
1.48
Valladolid
0.85

Mallorca creates 74% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 67 away

creates per match

Mallorca
1.57
Valladolid
1.06

allows per match

Mallorca
0.65
Valladolid
1.39

finishing

Mallorca+0.00on par
Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Valladolid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw
78%
Mallorca or Valladolid
74%
Draw or Valladolid
48%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+
26%
Valladolid wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals
77%
Mallorca 2+ goals
43%
Mallorca 3+ goals
19%
Valladolid 1+ goals
57%
Valladolid 2+ goals
21%
Valladolid 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)
71%
Valladolid (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.65 · 46 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.57 + Valladolid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Valladolid attack 1.06 + Mallorca defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Mallorca scores more
52%
level
26%
Valladolid scores more
22%

Mallorca at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Mallorca
WLLDW
Valladolid
LLLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mallorca vs Valladolid — Match Preview

Mallorca face Valladolid on August 16, 2026 in this Segunda División fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Mallorca host Valladolid at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.