Mallorca 1–0 Cadiz: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cadiz

Pablo Maffeo 16'

5/12/2023

La Liga · Round 34Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Mallorca49%

×Draw24%

Cadiz28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.25

Mallorca

1.73

Cadiz

1.25

Mallorca creates 38% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 6 away

1.34

creates per match

1.22

1.28

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Mallorca

1.34

Cadiz

1.22

allows per match

Mallorca

1.28

Cadiz

2.11

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.17scores more

Cadiz-0.39scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

72%

Mallorca or Cadiz

76%

Draw or Cadiz

51%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

26%

Cadiz wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

82%

Mallorca 2+ goals

52%

Mallorca 3+ goals

25%

Cadiz 1+ goals

71%

Cadiz 2+ goals

36%

Cadiz 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

64%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.28 · 35 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.11 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.34 + Cadiz defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Cadiz attack 1.22 + Mallorca defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Mallorca scores more

49%

level

24%

Cadiz scores more

28%

Mallorca at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

M. Valjent

Mallorca · D

8.2

Match Events

-5'

7'

16'

32'

50'

55'

58'

Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta

62'

Antonio Sánchez← A. Ndiaye

63'

Dani Rodríguez← Jaume Costa

64'

Iván Alejo

66'

Rubén Alcaraz← Iván Alejo

67'

T. Bongonda← Sergi Guardiola

67'

Álvaro Negredo← Fede San Emeterio

75'

Gonzalo Escalante

80'

A. Lozano← Rubén Sobrino

83'

C. Grenier← Manu Morlanes

90+5'

Pablo Maffeo

90+2'

S. Arzamendia← Fali

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaCadiz

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots14

1.32Expected Goals (xG)0.76

3Corners7

16Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots14

3On Target4

3Off Target5

2Blocked5

7Inside Box11

1Outside Box3

Passing

43%Possession57%

320Total Passes405

229Accurate Passes317

72%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

16Fouls14

5Yellow Cards4

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Mallorca vs Cadiz

Mallorca beat Cadiz 1-0 in La Liga on May 12, 2023.

Goals: Pablo Maffeo (16').

Cadiz controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Visit Mallorca Estadi in Palma de Mallorca.

Mallorca vs Cadiz — La Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mallorca vs Cadiz