Mallorca 2–1 Cadiz: Result & Stats | La Liga

Mallorca

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Cadiz

V. Muriqi 66' (pen)

Salva Sevilla 20' (pen)

Rubén Alcaraz 8'

2/5/2022

La Liga · Round 23Visit Mallorca Estadi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Mallorca45%

×Draw24%

Cadiz31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MallorcaExpected goals in this matchCadiz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.31

Mallorca

1.63

Cadiz

1.31

Mallorca creates 24% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 7 away

1.24

creates per match

1.41

1.21

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Mallorca

1.24

Cadiz

1.41

allows per match

Mallorca

1.21

Cadiz

2.03

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

-0.55scores less than expected

finishing

Mallorca+0.21scores more

Cadiz-0.55scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mallorca ↓

Cadiz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Mallorca or draw

69%

Mallorca or Cadiz

76%

Draw or Cadiz

55%

Winning margin

Mallorca wins by 2+

23%

Cadiz wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Mallorca 1+ goals

80%

Mallorca 2+ goals

48%

Mallorca 3+ goals

22%

Cadiz 1+ goals

73%

Cadiz 2+ goals

38%

Cadiz 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Mallorca (draw refunded)

59%

Cadiz (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mallorca at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.21 · 44 matches

Cadiz away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.03 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mallorca attack 1.24 + Cadiz defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

Cadiz attack 1.41 + Mallorca defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mallorca scores more

45%

level

24%

Cadiz scores more

31%

Mallorca at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mallorca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

T. Kubo

Mallorca · M

7.9

Match Events

8'

Rubén Alcaraz↳ Alejo

20'

Salva SevillaPenalty

59'

Isaac Carcelén

62'

Sobrino← Alejo

62'

J. Jønsson← Salvi

63'

Ángel RodríguezPenalty awarded

64'

Jeremías Ledesma

65'

Lucas Pérez

66'

V. MuriqiPenalty

69'

Iñigo Ruiz De Galarreta

70'

A. Ndiaye← Ángel

75'

Luis Hernández← Álex

77'

Amath Ndiaye

82'

Antonio Sánchez← Salva Sevilla

83'

Víctor Chust

89'

R. Battaglia← T. Kubo

89'

Abdón Prats← V. Muriqi

90'

Alberto Perea← Lucas Pérez

90+1'

O. Idrissi← V. Haroyan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MallorcaCadiz

Overview

46%Possession54%

17Total Shots12

6Corners4

14Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots12

5On Target5

8Off Target3

4Blocked4

14Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

46%Possession54%

348Total Passes411

268Accurate Passes339

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

0Offsides1