Cadiz 1–1 Mallorca: Result & Stats | La Liga

Cadiz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mallorca

Álvaro Negredo 90+3' (pen)

I. Baba 29'

10/31/2021

La Liga · Round 12Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Cadiz43%

×Draw27%

Mallorca29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CadizExpected goals in this matchMallorca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.06

Cadiz

1.35

Mallorca

1.06

Cadiz creates 27% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 97 away

0.95

creates per match

0.79

1.34

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Cadiz

0.95

Mallorca

0.79

allows per match

Cadiz

1.34

Mallorca

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cadiz+0.00on par

Mallorca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cadiz ↓

Mallorca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Cadiz or draw

71%

Cadiz or Mallorca

73%

Draw or Mallorca

57%

Winning margin

Cadiz wins by 2+

20%

Mallorca wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Cadiz 1+ goals

74%

Cadiz 2+ goals

39%

Cadiz 3+ goals

15%

Mallorca 1+ goals

65%

Mallorca 2+ goals

29%

Mallorca 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cadiz (draw refunded)

60%

Mallorca (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cadiz at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.34 · 58 matches

Mallorca away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.76 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cadiz attack 0.95 + Mallorca defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.35

Mallorca attack 0.79 + Cadiz defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Cadiz scores more

43%

level

27%

Mallorca scores more

29%

Cadiz at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Cadiz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

I. Baba

Mallorca · M

8.3

Match Events

-5'

18'

20'

29'

31'

46'

Víctor Chust← Fali Jiménez

46'

A. Sedlar← M. Valjent

51'

Aleksandar Sedlar

61'

Álvaro Negredo← Sobrino

62'

T. Alarcón← J. Jønsson

63'

Antonio Sánchez← A. Ndiaye

63'

Ruiz de Galarreta← Salva Sevilla

69'

S. Arzamendia← Iván Chapela

72'

Iddrisu BabaCard upgrade

74'

Iddrisu Baba

77'

Juan Cala

80'

M. Osmajić← Isaac Carcelén

82'

Joan Sastre← Pablo Maffeo

87'

87'

90+1'

90+2'

90+1'

R. Battaglia← Lee Kang-In

90+3'

Álvaro NegredoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CadizMallorca

Overview

44%Possession56%

13Total Shots11

6Corners5

14Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots11

2On Target5

6Off Target6

5Blocked0

10Inside Box5

3Outside Box6

Passing

44%Possession56%

297Total Passes402

213Accurate Passes311

72%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls16

3Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

4Offsides2