Malaga 1–0 Eibar: Result & Stats | Segunda División

Malaga

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Eibar

David Larrubia 15'

10/27/2024

Segunda División · Round 12Estadio La Rosaleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 108+ matches

Malaga41%

×Draw30%

Eibar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MalagaExpected goals in this matchEibar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.95

Malaga

1.17

Eibar

0.95

Malaga creates 23% more chances

Season form · 150 home / 108 away

1.17

creates per match

0.99

0.91

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Malaga

1.17

Eibar

0.99

allows per match

Malaga

0.91

Eibar

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Malaga+0.00on par

Eibar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Malaga ↓

Eibar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Malaga or draw

70%

Malaga or Eibar

70%

Draw or Eibar

59%

Winning margin

Malaga wins by 2+

17%

Eibar wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Malaga 1+ goals

69%

Malaga 2+ goals

33%

Malaga 3+ goals

11%

Eibar 1+ goals

61%

Eibar 2+ goals

25%

Eibar 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Malaga (draw refunded)

58%

Eibar (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Malaga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.91 · 150 matches

Eibar away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.18 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Malaga attack 1.17 + Eibar defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Eibar attack 0.99 + Malaga defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Malaga scores more

41%

level

30%

Eibar scores more

30%

Malaga at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

Manu Molina

Malaga · M

8.3

Match Events

15'

David Larrubia

46'

Cristian Gutiérrez← Hodei Arrillaga

46'

Peru Nolaskoain← Matheus Pereira

47'

Luismi

53'

José Corpas

55'

Dani LorenzoPenalty cancelled

58'

Cristian Gutiérrez

62'

Antonio Puertas← Martín Merquelanz

71'

Antonio Cordero← Kevin Medina

71'

A. Moloney← Dani Lorenzo

71'

Sergio Castel← Dioni

72'

Toni Villa← Ander Madariaga

73'

Izan Merino← Luismi

80'

Jorge Pascual← Xeber Alkain

84'

Toni Villa

90'

Álvaro Carrillo

90+1'

Álex Pastor← David Larrubia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MalagaEibar

Overview

38%Possession62%

10Total Shots14

0Corners6

15Fouls13

Shots

10Total Shots14

5On Target5

4Off Target5

1Blocked4

9Inside Box7

1Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

341Total Passes543

252Accurate Passes455

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls13

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides1

Segunda División: Malaga 1–0 Eibar

Malaga beat Eibar 1-0 in Segunda División on October 27, 2024.

Goals: David Larrubia (15').

Eibar controlled possession (62%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio La Rosaleda in Málaga.

Malaga vs Eibar — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Malaga 1–0 Eibar