Eibar 2–1 Malaga: Result & Stats | Segunda División

Eibar

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Malaga

Juan Berrocal 90'

Stoichkov 32'

E. Burgos 88'

1/15/2023

Segunda División · Round 23Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Eibar41%

×Draw23%

Malaga36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EibarExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.60

Eibar

1.74

Malaga

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.23

creates per match

2.14

1.07

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Eibar

2.23

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Eibar

1.07

Malaga

1.25

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Eibar-0.10scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Eibar or draw

64%

Eibar or Malaga

77%

Draw or Malaga

59%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+

22%

Malaga wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals

82%

Eibar 2+ goals

52%

Eibar 3+ goals

25%

Malaga 1+ goals

80%

Malaga 2+ goals

47%

Malaga 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)

54%

Malaga (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 2.23 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.74

Malaga attack 2.14 + Eibar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eibar scores more

41%

level

23%

Malaga scores more

36%

Eibar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

Stoichkov

Eibar · F

7.9

Match Events

20'

32'

45+1'

55'

67'

71'

Jon Bautista← Stoichkov

71'

Luis Muñoz← Aleix Febas

72'

Álex Gallar← Rubén Castro

73'

Yanis Rahmani

78'

Matheus Pereira

81'

Quique González← Y. Rahmani

81'

Álvaro Vadillo← José Corpas

83'

A. Appiah← Fran Villalba

83'

Fran Sol← P. Chavarría

88'

E. Burgos↳ Fran Sol

90+3'

Frederico Venâncio← Javi Muñoz

90'

Juan Berrocal↳ Álvaro Vadillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EibarMalaga

Overview

54%Possession46%

17Total Shots7

4Corners1

8Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots7

7On Target3

4Off Target2

6Blocked2

9Inside Box5

8Outside Box2

Passing

54%Possession46%

553Total Passes472

457Accurate Passes359

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3

Eibar 2 – 1 Malaga

Eibar beat Malaga 2-1 in Segunda División on January 15, 2023.

Goals: Stoichkov (32'), E. Burgos (88'), Juan Berrocal (90').

Eibar controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa in Eibar.

Eibar vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eibar 2 – 1 Malaga