Eibar 2–4 Malaga: Result & Stats | Segunda División

Eibar

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 1

Malaga

J. Corpas 32'

S. Alvarez 20'

A. Nino 84', 65'

D. Brasanac 78'

Chupe 8' (pen)

5/2/2026

Segunda División · Round 38Estadio Municipal de Ipurua

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Eibar41%

×Draw23%

Malaga36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EibarExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.60

Eibar

1.74

Malaga

1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

2.23

creates per match

2.14

1.07

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Eibar

2.23

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Eibar

1.07

Malaga

1.25

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Eibar-0.10scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Eibar or draw

64%

Eibar or Malaga

77%

Draw or Malaga

59%

Winning margin

Eibar wins by 2+

22%

Malaga wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Eibar 1+ goals

82%

Eibar 2+ goals

52%

Eibar 3+ goals

25%

Malaga 1+ goals

80%

Malaga 2+ goals

47%

Malaga 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Eibar (draw refunded)

54%

Malaga (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.07 · 8 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar attack 2.23 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.74

Malaga attack 2.14 + Eibar defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Eibar scores more

41%

level

23%

Malaga scores more

36%

Eibar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Eibar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Nino

Malaga · F

8.7

Match Events

2'

José Corpas

6'

Diego MurilloPenalty confirmed

7'

Lander Olaetxea

8'

ChupePenalty

19'

Izan Merino

20'

S. Alvarez↳ A. Arambarri

32'

J. Corpas

46'

R. Enriquez← I. Merino

62'

J. Martinez← L. Olaetxea

62'

A. Nino← D. Larrubia

62'

H. Abaida← R. Rodriguez

63'

Javier Marton← A. Ares

65'

A. Nino↳ Chupe

70'

D. Brasanac← Chupe

73'

Carlos Dotor

78'

D. Brasanac↳ J. Munoz

79'

A. Rodriguez← S. Cubero

79'

A. Garrido← A. Madariaga

84'

A. Nino↳ J. Munoz

85'

J. Bernat← J. Corpas

85'

A. Ochoa← J. Munoz

90+2'

Diego Murillo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EibarMalaga

Overview

41%Possession59%

13Total Shots19

2Corners6

8Fouls7

Shots

13Total Shots19

5On Target8

6Off Target6

2Blocked5

11Inside Box11

2Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

415Total Passes602

335Accurate Passes524

81%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0

Match Recap: Eibar vs Malaga

Malaga beat Eibar 4-2 in Segunda División on May 2, 2026.

Goals: Chupe (8' pen), S. Alvarez (20'), J. Corpas (32'), A. Nino (65', 84'), D. Brasanac (78').

Malaga controlled possession (59%) and registered 19 shots to 13.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Ipurua in Eibar.

Eibar vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Eibar vs Malaga