Makedonija GjP 2–1 Bregalnica Štip: Result & Stats

Makedonija GjP

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bregalnica Štip

5/12/2024

First League · Round 32Stadion Gorče Petrov

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Makedonija GjP51%

×Draw26%

Bregalnica Štip23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Makedonija GjPExpected goals in this matchBregalnica Štip

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.92

Makedonija GjP

1.50

Bregalnica Štip

0.92

Makedonija GjP creates 63% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 47 away

1.36

creates per match

0.81

1.03

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Makedonija GjP

1.36

Bregalnica Štip

0.81

allows per match

Makedonija GjP

1.03

Bregalnica Štip

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Makedonija GjP ↓

Bregalnica Štip →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Makedonija GjP or draw

77%

Makedonija GjP or Bregalnica Štip

74%

Draw or Bregalnica Štip

49%

Winning margin

Makedonija GjP wins by 2+

26%

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Makedonija GjP 1+ goals

78%

Makedonija GjP 2+ goals

44%

Makedonija GjP 3+ goals

19%

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals

60%

Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals

23%

Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)

69%

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Makedonija GjP at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.03 · 91 matches

Bregalnica Štip away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Makedonija GjP attack 1.36 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.50

Bregalnica Štip attack 0.81 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Makedonija GjP scores more

51%

level

26%

Bregalnica Štip scores more

23%

Makedonija GjP at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Makedonija GjP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff