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Bregalnica Štip vs Makedonija GjP — Second League 2019

Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
4/26/2025Second LeagueSecond League · Round 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Bregalnica Štip53%
×Draw27%
Makedonija GjP20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bregalnica Štip
1.47
Makedonija GjP
0.79

Bregalnica Štip creates 86% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip
2.52
Makedonija GjP
1.00

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip
0.58
Makedonija GjP
0.41

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par
Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Makedonija GjP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw
80%
Bregalnica Štip or Makedonija GjP
73%
Draw or Makedonija GjP
47%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
27%
Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
77%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
43%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
18%
Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
55%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
19%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
73%
Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.58 · 52 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 2.52 + Makedonija GjP defence 0.41 → ÷2 → 1.47

Makedonija GjP attack 1.00 + Bregalnica Štip defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more
53%
level
27%
Makedonija GjP scores more
20%

Bregalnica Štip at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Bregalnica Štip 0–0 Makedonija GjP

Bregalnica Štip and Makedonija GjP drew 0-0 in Second League on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Štip.