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Bregalnica Štip vs Makedonija GjP — First League 2019

Bregalnica Štip
Bregalnica Štip
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Makedonija GjP
Makedonija GjP
11/4/2023First LeagueFirst League · Round 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Bregalnica Štip46%
×Draw26%
Makedonija GjP28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bregalnica Štip
1.51
Makedonija GjP
1.12

Bregalnica Štip creates 35% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 94 away

creates per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.37
Makedonija GjP
1.14

allows per match

Bregalnica Štip
1.10
Makedonija GjP
1.65

finishing

Bregalnica Štip+0.00on par
Makedonija GjP+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bregalnica Štip ↓

Makedonija GjP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Bregalnica Štip or draw
72%
Bregalnica Štip or Makedonija GjP
74%
Draw or Makedonija GjP
54%

Winning margin

Bregalnica Štip wins by 2+
23%
Makedonija GjP wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bregalnica Štip 1+ goals
78%
Bregalnica Štip 2+ goals
44%
Bregalnica Štip 3+ goals
19%
Makedonija GjP 1+ goals
67%
Makedonija GjP 2+ goals
31%
Makedonija GjP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bregalnica Štip (draw refunded)
62%
Makedonija GjP (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bregalnica Štip at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.10 · 49 matches

Makedonija GjP away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.65 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bregalnica Štip attack 1.37 + Makedonija GjP defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.51

Makedonija GjP attack 1.14 + Bregalnica Štip defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bregalnica Štip scores more
46%
level
26%
Makedonija GjP scores more
28%

Bregalnica Štip at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bregalnica Štip will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

First League: Bregalnica Štip 2–3 Makedonija GjP

Makedonija GjP beat Bregalnica Štip 3-2 in First League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Štip.