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Mainz 05 U19 vs Freiburg U19 — DFB Junioren Pokal 2020

Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19advanced
FT
5 – 3
HT: 3 – 2
Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
A. Latifi 90'
Mats Preßler 75' (pen)
J. Debrah 45'
Y. Boos 41' (OG)
J. Kusi 39'
D. Imafidon 65' (OG)
B. Adomah 34', 26'
8/17/2025DFB Junioren PokalDFB Junioren Pokal · Round of 64Stadion am Bruchweg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Mainz 05 U1927%
×Draw19%
Freiburg U1954%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mainz 05 U19
1.76
Freiburg U19
2.51

Freiburg U19 creates 43% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Mainz 05 U19
2.63
Freiburg U19
2.89

allows per match

Mainz 05 U19
2.13
Freiburg U19
0.89

finishing

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par
Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mainz 05 U19 ↓

Freiburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–24%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Mainz 05 U19 or draw
46%
Mainz 05 U19 or Freiburg U19
81%
Draw or Freiburg U19
73%

Winning margin

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
13%
Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
83%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
52%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
26%
Freiburg U19 1+ goals
92%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
71%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
45%

Draw no bet

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
33%
Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mainz 05 U19 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 2.13 · 8 matches

Freiburg U19 away — creates 2.89, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.63 + Freiburg U19 defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.76

Freiburg U19 attack 2.89 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mainz 05 U19 scores more
27%
level
19%
Freiburg U19 scores more
54%

Freiburg U19 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Freiburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'
B. Adomah
34'
B. Adomah
39'
J. Kusi
41'
Y. BoosOwn goal
45'
J. Debrah
65'
D. ImafidonOwn goal
75'
Mats PreßlerPenalty
90'
A. Latifi
Mainz
Freiburg
J. Kirchhoff
Manager: J. Kirchhoff
J. Wiedensohler
Manager: J. Wiedensohler

DFB Junioren Pokal: Mainz 05 U19 5–3 Freiburg U19

Mainz 05 U19 beat Freiburg U19 5-3 in DFB Junioren Pokal on August 17, 2025.

Goals: B. Adomah (26', 34'), J. Kusi (39'), Y. Boos (41' o.g.), J. Debrah (45'), D. Imafidon (65' o.g.), Mats Preßler (75' pen), A. Latifi (90').

The match was played at Stadion am Bruchweg in Mainz.