Freiburg U19 1–3 Mainz 05 U19: Result & Stats

Freiburg U19

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Mainz 05 U19

P. Fahrner 66' (pen)

B. Bobzien 38', 37'

M. Makey 9'

11/20/2021

U19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 10Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Freiburg U1936%

×Draw21%

Mainz 05 U1943%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Freiburg U19Expected goals in this matchMainz 05 U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.00

Freiburg U19

1.83

Mainz 05 U19

2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 75 away

2.44

creates per match

2.40

1.59

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Freiburg U19

2.44

Mainz 05 U19

2.40

allows per match

Freiburg U19

1.59

Mainz 05 U19

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par

Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw

57%

Freiburg U19 or Mainz 05 U19

79%

Draw or Mainz 05 U19

64%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+

19%

Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals

84%

Freiburg U19 2+ goals

54%

Freiburg U19 3+ goals

28%

Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals

86%

Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals

59%

Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more

36%

level

21%

Mainz 05 U19 scores more

43%

Mainz 05 U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

37'

38'

46'

46'

M. Klöppel← D. Schmidt

57'

G. Bunga Capitao← T. Mühlethaler

66'

P. FahrnerPenalty

67'

T. Birk← J. Ribeiro

67'

A. Moutassime← G. Pellegrino

84'

Y. Azahaf← D. Kaygin

85'

A. Echner← D. Au Yeong

90+1'

J. Götze← B. Bobzien

Freiburg

Mainz

▼

⚽

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: F. Valente

57'▲G. Bunga Capitao←▼T. Mühlethaler

67'▲T. Birk←▼J. Ribeiro

67'▲A. Moutassime←▼G. Pellegrino

85'▲A. Echner←▼D. Au Yeong

Freiburg U19 substitutes

CapitaoBirkMoutassimeEchnerBrüningJogerstHülsenbusch

Manager: B. Hoffmann

46'▲M. Heinz←▼K. Kraft

46'▲M. Klöppel←▼D. Schmidt

84'▲Y. Azahaf←▼D. Kaygin

90+1'▲J. Götze←▼B. Bobzien

Mainz 05 U19 substitutes

HeinzKlöppelAzahafGötzeReinheimerLeipoldSchmidt

Match Recap: Freiburg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19

Mainz 05 U19 beat Freiburg U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 20, 2021.

Goals: M. Makey (9'), B. Bobzien (37', 38'), P. Fahrner (66' pen).

The match was played at Möslestadion in Freiburg im Breisgau.

Freiburg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Freiburg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19