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Freiburg U19 vs Mainz 05 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Freiburg U19
Freiburg U19
CANC
10:00
Mainz 05 U19
Mainz 05 U19
2/7/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Süd / Südwest - 11Möslestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Freiburg U1936%
×Draw21%
Mainz 05 U1943%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburg U19
1.83
Mainz 05 U19
2.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 75 away

creates per match

Freiburg U19
2.44
Mainz 05 U19
2.40

allows per match

Freiburg U19
1.59
Mainz 05 U19
1.23

finishing

Freiburg U19+0.00on par
Mainz 05 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburg U19 ↓

Mainz 05 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Freiburg U19 or draw
57%
Freiburg U19 or Mainz 05 U19
79%
Draw or Mainz 05 U19
64%

Winning margin

Freiburg U19 wins by 2+
19%
Mainz 05 U19 wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Freiburg U19 1+ goals
84%
Freiburg U19 2+ goals
54%
Freiburg U19 3+ goals
28%
Mainz 05 U19 1+ goals
86%
Mainz 05 U19 2+ goals
59%
Mainz 05 U19 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Freiburg U19 (draw refunded)
46%
Mainz 05 U19 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburg U19 at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.59 · 66 matches

Mainz 05 U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.23 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburg U19 attack 2.44 + Mainz 05 U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.83

Mainz 05 U19 attack 2.40 + Freiburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Freiburg U19 scores more
36%
level
21%
Mainz 05 U19 scores more
43%

Mainz 05 U19 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Mainz 05 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Freiburg U19 face Mainz 05 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Freiburg U19 hosting Mainz 05 U19. Match starts February 7, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Freiburg U19 host Mainz 05 U19 at Möslestadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.