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Magallanes vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera División 2018

Magallanes
Magallanes
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
12/9/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 30Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Magallanes35%
×Draw27%
Coquimbo Unido38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magallanes
1.25
Coquimbo Unido
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 97 away

creates per match

Magallanes
1.13
Coquimbo Unido
1.13

allows per match

Magallanes
1.47
Coquimbo Unido
1.38

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par
Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Coquimbo Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw
62%
Magallanes or Coquimbo Unido
73%
Draw or Coquimbo Unido
65%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+
15%
Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals
71%
Magallanes 2+ goals
36%
Magallanes 3+ goals
13%
Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
73%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
37%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)
48%
Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.38 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.25

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.13 + Magallanes defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Magallanes scores more
35%
level
27%
Coquimbo Unido scores more
38%

Coquimbo Unido at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Magallanes 2–3 Coquimbo Unido

Coquimbo Unido beat Magallanes 3-2 in Primera División on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in San Bernardo.