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Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes — Primera B 2026

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
CANC
00:00
Magallanes
Magallanes
9/1/2018Primera BPrimera B · Round 22Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso (Coquimbo)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Coquimbo Unido46%
×Draw28%
Magallanes26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.34
Magallanes
0.92

Coquimbo Unido creates 46% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 105 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.48
Magallanes
1.13

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
0.71
Magallanes
1.21

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
74%
Coquimbo Unido or Magallanes
72%
Draw or Magallanes
54%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
22%
Magallanes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
74%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
39%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
15%
Magallanes 1+ goals
60%
Magallanes 2+ goals
23%
Magallanes 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
64%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.71 · 21 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.48 + Magallanes defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Coquimbo Unido defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
46%
level
28%
Magallanes scores more
26%

Coquimbo Unido at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes — Match Preview

Coquimbo Unido face Magallanes on September 1, 2018 in this Primera B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Coquimbo Unido host Magallanes at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso (Coquimbo).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.