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Coquimbo Unido vs Magallanes — Primera División 2018

Coquimbo Unido
Coquimbo Unido
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Magallanes
Magallanes
5/20/2023Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 15Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Coquimbo Unido48%
×Draw25%
Magallanes27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Coquimbo Unido
1.61
Magallanes
1.16

Coquimbo Unido creates 39% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 15 away

creates per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.43
Magallanes
1.27

allows per match

Coquimbo Unido
1.04
Magallanes
1.80

finishing

Coquimbo Unido+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Coquimbo Unido ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Coquimbo Unido or draw
73%
Coquimbo Unido or Magallanes
75%
Draw or Magallanes
52%

Winning margin

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+
25%
Magallanes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals
80%
Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals
48%
Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals
22%
Magallanes 1+ goals
69%
Magallanes 2+ goals
32%
Magallanes 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)
63%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Coquimbo Unido at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.04 · 96 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.43 + Magallanes defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.61

Magallanes attack 1.27 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Coquimbo Unido scores more
48%
level
25%
Magallanes scores more
27%

Coquimbo Unido at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Coquimbo Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Coquimbo Unido 1–0 Magallanes

Coquimbo Unido beat Magallanes 1-0 in Primera División on May 20, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Bicentenario Francisco Sánchez Rumoroso in Coquimbo.