Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Magallanes vs Colo Colo — Copa Chile 2019

Magallanes
Magallanes
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
12/13/2023Copa ChileCopa Chile · FinalsEstadio Tierra de Campeones

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Magallanes35%
×Draw25%
Colo Colo40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Magallanes
1.41
Colo Colo
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 23 away

creates per match

Magallanes
1.52
Colo Colo
2.04

allows per match

Magallanes
1.00
Colo Colo
1.30

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw
60%
Magallanes or Colo Colo
75%
Draw or Colo Colo
65%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+
16%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals
76%
Magallanes 2+ goals
41%
Magallanes 3+ goals
17%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
78%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
45%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)
47%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.00 · 21 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 2.04, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.52 + Colo Colo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Colo Colo attack 2.04 + Magallanes defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Magallanes scores more
35%
level
25%
Colo Colo scores more
40%

Colo Colo at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Magallanes vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Magallanes 3-1 in Copa Chile on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Tierra de Campeones in Iquique.