Magallanes 1–2 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Magallanes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Colo Colo

11/7/2023

Primera División · Round 22Estadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Magallanes30%

×Draw26%

Colo Colo43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MagallanesExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.41

Magallanes

1.13

Colo Colo

1.41

Colo Colo creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 126 away

1.13

creates per match

1.35

1.47

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Magallanes

1.13

Colo Colo

1.35

allows per match

Magallanes

1.47

Colo Colo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Magallanes+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Magallanes ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Magallanes or draw

57%

Magallanes or Colo Colo

74%

Draw or Colo Colo

70%

Winning margin

Magallanes wins by 2+

12%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Magallanes 1+ goals

68%

Magallanes 2+ goals

31%

Magallanes 3+ goals

11%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

76%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

41%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Magallanes (draw refunded)

41%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Magallanes at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Magallanes attack 1.13 + Colo Colo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Colo Colo attack 1.35 + Magallanes defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Magallanes scores more

30%

level

26%

Colo Colo scores more

43%

Colo Colo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff