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Colo Colo vs Magallanes — Copa Chile 2019

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Magallanes
Magallanes
10/29/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional FinalsEstadio Monumental David Arellano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Colo Colo48%
×Draw24%
Magallanes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.69
Magallanes
1.25

Colo Colo creates 35% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
2.05
Magallanes
1.96

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.55
Magallanes
1.32

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
72%
Colo Colo or Magallanes
76%
Draw or Magallanes
52%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
25%
Magallanes wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
82%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
50%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
24%
Magallanes 1+ goals
71%
Magallanes 2+ goals
36%
Magallanes 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
63%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 2.05, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 2.05 + Magallanes defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.69

Magallanes attack 1.96 + Colo Colo defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Colo Colo scores more
48%
level
24%
Magallanes scores more
28%

Colo Colo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: Colo Colo 0–0 Magallanes

Colo Colo and Magallanes drew 0-0 in Copa Chile on October 29, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental David Arellano in Santiago de Chile.