Macva 0–3 FK Crvena Zvezda: Result & Stats

Macva

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

FK Crvena Zvezda

S. Babić 37'

E. Ben Nabouhane 33', 19'

3/7/2020

Super Liga · Round 25Stadion FK Mačva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Macva12%

×Draw19%

FK Crvena Zvezda68%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MacvaExpected goals in this matchFK Crvena Zvezda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

2.08

Macva

0.74

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.08

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 181% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 124 away

0.71

creates per match

2.54

1.63

allows per match

0.77

creates per match

Macva

0.71

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.54

allows per match

Macva

1.63

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Macva+0.00on par

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Macva ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–213%

0–39%

0–45%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–13%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Macva or draw

32%

Macva or FK Crvena Zvezda

81%

Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda

88%

Winning margin

Macva wins by 2+

3%

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

43%

Team goals

Macva 1+ goals

52%

Macva 2+ goals

17%

Macva 3+ goals

4%

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

87%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

61%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Macva (draw refunded)

15%

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Macva at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.63 · 35 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.77 · 124 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Macva attack 0.71 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.74

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.54 + Macva defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Macva scores more

12%

level

19%

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

68%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

26'

29'

33'

37'

46'

B. Mihajlović← S. Ilić

54'

Lazar Ivić

58'

B. Jovičić← V. Nikolić

64'

M. Zukanović← N. Dukić

70'

I. Obrovac← N. Milinković

70'

V. Simić← Ž. Gavrić

75'

M. García← Tómané

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MacvaFK

Overview

40%Possession60%

1Total Shots10

0Corners3

20Fouls18

Shots

1Total Shots10

0On Target5

1Off Target5

Passing

40%Possession60%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

20Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

1Offsides5