FK Crvena Zvezda vs Macva — Super Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 53+ matches
FK Crvena Zvezda78%
Macva7%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
FK Crvena Zvezda creates 336% more chances
Season form · 148 home / 53 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over56
- Under44
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- No62
- Yes38
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
FK Crvena Zvezda ↓
Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.57 · 148 matches
Macva away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.89 · 53 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.90 + Macva defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.40
Macva attack 0.53 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 78%?"
FK Crvena Zvezda at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 78% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Macva substitutes
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Vojvodina
TSC Backa Topola
Radnik Surdulica
Mladost Lucani
Proleter Novi SAD
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Metalac GM
Napredak
Radnicki NIS
Novi Pazar
FK Vozdovac
RAD
Javor
Indjija
FK ZlatiborMacva
BackaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
FK Crvena Zvezda host Macva on Thursday, 11 March 2021 at 18:10. The match is part of the Super Liga 2018/2019 season.
FK Crvena Zvezda 4 – 0 Macva
FK Crvena Zvezda beat Macva 4-0 in Super Liga on March 11, 2021.
Goals: A. Katai (9', 87'), M. Pavkov (24'), A. Vukanović (79').
The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić in Beograd.