FK Crvena Zvezda 3–1 Macva: Result & Stats

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Macva

Cañas 37'

E. Ben Nabouhane 32'

Tómané 8'

S. Milosavljević 83'

9/28/2019

Super Liga · Round 10Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda84%

×Draw11%

Macva5%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchMacva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.06

0.64

FK Crvena Zvezda

3.06

Macva

0.64

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 378% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 6 away

3.29

creates per match

0.50

0.78

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

3.29

Macva

0.50

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.78

Macva

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Macva+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Macva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–15%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–18%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–012%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–16%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

95%

FK Crvena Zvezda or Macva

89%

Draw or Macva

16%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

66%

Macva wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

95%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

80%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

57%

Macva 1+ goals

47%

Macva 2+ goals

14%

Macva 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

94%

Macva (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 3.29, concedes 0.78 · 41 matches

Macva away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 3.29 + Macva defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 3.06

Macva attack 0.50 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

84%

level

11%

Macva scores more

5%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

Tómané

32'

E. Ben Nabouhane

37'

Cañas

39'

M. Mijailovic

46'

A. Stevanović← P. Jeremić

56'

Đ. Šušnjar← S. Marić

60'

R. Pankov← M. Rodić

64'

D. Susnjar

71'

71'

81'

83'

83'

FK

Macva

55

Puletić

7

▼

15

2

3

5

22

▼

Jeremić

4

▼

Ivić

6

Jevtić

77

⚽

9

82

19

23

▼

5

2

91

87

⚽

▼

Cañas

8

Ivanić

7

Vulić

31

⚽

Nabouhane

17

⚽

▼

Tómané

Manager: V. Milojević

60'▲R. Pankov←▼M. Rodić

71'▲N. Krstović←▼Tómané

81'▲N. Petrović←▼Cañas

FK Crvena Zvezda substitutes

6Pankov99Krstović20Petrović1Popović15Babić21Simić92Vukanović

Manager: D. Aničić

46'▲A. Stevanović←▼P. Jeremić

56'▲Đ. Šušnjar←▼S. Marić

71'▲F. Božić←▼L. Ivić

Macva substitutes

30Stevanović14Šušnjar45Božić1Lekić10Vujasin50Marinković16Dukić