Machine Sazi FC vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
Machine Sazi FC20%
Aluminium Arak53%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Aluminium Arak creates 91% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 20 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under63
- Over37
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No60
- Yes40
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Machine Sazi FC ↓
Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Machine Sazi FC at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.00 · 20 matches
Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Machine Sazi FC attack 0.95 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.75
Aluminium Arak attack 0.85 + Machine Sazi FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.43
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Aluminium Arak at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
4 previous meetings · small sample
Gol Gohar
Shahin Bushehr
Oxin AlborzAluminium Arak
Mes Kerman
SorkhPooshan Pakdasht
Baderan Tehran
Qashqai Shiraz
Fajr Sepasi
Mes Rafsanjan
Malavan
Navad Urmia
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari MahshahrIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Machine Sazi FC host Aluminium Arak on Sunday, 24 September 2017 at 12:30. The match is part of the Azadegan League 2018/2019 season.
Azadegan League: Machine Sazi FC 1–2 Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak beat Machine Sazi FC 2-1 in Azadegan League on September 24, 2017.
The match was played at Bonyan Diesel Stadium (Tabrīz (Tabriz)).