Aluminium Arak 2–2 Machine Sazi FC: Result & Stats

Aluminium Arak

FT

2 – 2

Machine Sazi FC

2/12/2018

Azadegan League · Round 23Imam Khomeini Stadium (Arak)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Aluminium Arak68%

×Draw20%

Machine Sazi FC12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aluminium ArakExpected goals in this matchMachine Sazi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.66

Aluminium Arak

1.96

Machine Sazi FC

0.66

Aluminium Arak creates 197% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 22 away

1.11

creates per match

0.64

0.67

allows per match

2.82

creates per match

Aluminium Arak

1.11

Machine Sazi FC

0.64

allows per match

Aluminium Arak

0.67

Machine Sazi FC

2.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Machine Sazi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–16%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw

88%

Aluminium Arak or Machine Sazi FC

80%

Draw or Machine Sazi FC

32%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+

42%

Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals

86%

Aluminium Arak 2+ goals

58%

Aluminium Arak 3+ goals

31%

Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals

48%

Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals

14%

Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)

85%

Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.67 · 18 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.64, concedes 2.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 1.11 + Machine Sazi FC defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.96

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.64 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more

68%

level

20%

Machine Sazi FC scores more

12%

Aluminium Arak at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff