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Aluminium Arak vs Machine Sazi FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Machine Sazi FC
Machine Sazi FC
12/7/2020Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 5Imam Khomeini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Aluminium Arak50%
×Draw29%
Machine Sazi FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.27
Machine Sazi FC
0.70

Aluminium Arak creates 81% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 30 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
0.87
Machine Sazi FC
0.60

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.79
Machine Sazi FC
1.67

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Machine Sazi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Machine Sazi FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
79%
Aluminium Arak or Machine Sazi FC
71%
Draw or Machine Sazi FC
50%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
23%
Machine Sazi FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
72%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
36%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
14%
Machine Sazi FC 1+ goals
50%
Machine Sazi FC 2+ goals
16%
Machine Sazi FC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
71%
Machine Sazi FC (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Machine Sazi FC away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.67 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Machine Sazi FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.27

Machine Sazi FC attack 0.60 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
50%
level
29%
Machine Sazi FC scores more
21%

Aluminium Arak at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminium Arak vs Machine Sazi FC

Aluminium Arak beat Machine Sazi FC 4-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 7, 2020.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini Stadium in Arak.