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Maccabi Shaarayim vs Holon Yermiyahu — League #496 2026

Maccabi Shaarayim
Maccabi Shaarayim
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Holon Yermiyahu
Holon Yermiyahu
D. De Wendler 21'
K. Yosef 39'
O. Hak 19' (pen)
1/23/2025League #496League #496 · South - 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Maccabi Shaarayim22%
×Draw26%
Holon Yermiyahu52%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Shaarayim
0.86
Holon Yermiyahu
1.48

Holon Yermiyahu creates 72% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 9 away

creates per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
0.83
Holon Yermiyahu
1.67

allows per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.30
Holon Yermiyahu
0.89

finishing

Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par
Holon Yermiyahu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Shaarayim ↓

Holon Yermiyahu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–211%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Maccabi Shaarayim or draw
48%
Maccabi Shaarayim or Holon Yermiyahu
74%
Draw or Holon Yermiyahu
78%

Winning margin

Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+
7%
Holon Yermiyahu wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals
58%
Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals
21%
Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals
6%
Holon Yermiyahu 1+ goals
77%
Holon Yermiyahu 2+ goals
43%
Holon Yermiyahu 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)
30%
Holon Yermiyahu (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Shaarayim at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

Holon Yermiyahu away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 0.83 + Holon Yermiyahu defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.86

Holon Yermiyahu attack 1.67 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Maccabi Shaarayim scores more
22%
level
26%
Holon Yermiyahu scores more
52%

Holon Yermiyahu at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Holon Yermiyahu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
O. HakPenalty
21'
D. De Wendler
39'
K. Yosef
48'
R. Yaacov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Shaarayim vs Holon Yermiyahu

Holon Yermiyahu beat Maccabi Shaarayim 2-1 in League #496 on January 23, 2025.

Goals: O. Hak (19' pen), D. De Wendler (21'), K. Yosef (39').