Holon Yermiyahu 0–2 Maccabi Shaarayim

Holon Yermiyahu

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Maccabi Shaarayim

E. Chen 31'

D. Konitzky 4'

1/5/2024

League #496 · South - 9Holon Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Holon Yermiyahu47%

×Draw25%

Maccabi Shaarayim28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Holon YermiyahuExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Shaarayim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.17

Holon Yermiyahu

1.58

Maccabi Shaarayim

1.17

Holon Yermiyahu creates 35% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

1.75

creates per match

1.09

1.25

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Holon Yermiyahu

1.75

Maccabi Shaarayim

1.09

allows per match

Holon Yermiyahu

1.25

Maccabi Shaarayim

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Holon Yermiyahu+0.00on par

Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Holon Yermiyahu ↓

Maccabi Shaarayim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Holon Yermiyahu or draw

72%

Holon Yermiyahu or Maccabi Shaarayim

75%

Draw or Maccabi Shaarayim

53%

Winning margin

Holon Yermiyahu wins by 2+

24%

Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Holon Yermiyahu 1+ goals

79%

Holon Yermiyahu 2+ goals

47%

Holon Yermiyahu 3+ goals

21%

Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals

69%

Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals

33%

Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Holon Yermiyahu (draw refunded)

62%

Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Holon Yermiyahu at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Maccabi Shaarayim away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Holon Yermiyahu attack 1.75 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.58

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 1.09 + Holon Yermiyahu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Holon Yermiyahu scores more

47%

level

25%

Maccabi Shaarayim scores more

28%

Holon Yermiyahu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Holon Yermiyahu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

D. Konitzky

31'

E. Chen

76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff