Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Maccabi Shaarayim vs Holon Yermiyahu — State Cup 2019

Maccabi Shaarayim
Maccabi Shaarayim
FT
2 – 3
Holon Yermiyahu
Holon Yermiyahu
9/1/2023State CupState Cup · 5th Round (Liga Alef)Rehovot Marmorek Weisgal Synthetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Maccabi Shaarayim29%
×Draw22%
Holon Yermiyahu49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.47
Holon Yermiyahu
1.98

Holon Yermiyahu creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.83
Holon Yermiyahu
2.80

allows per match

Maccabi Shaarayim
1.17
Holon Yermiyahu
1.10

finishing

Maccabi Shaarayim+0.00on par
Holon Yermiyahu+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Shaarayim ↓

Holon Yermiyahu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Maccabi Shaarayim or draw
51%
Maccabi Shaarayim or Holon Yermiyahu
78%
Draw or Holon Yermiyahu
71%

Winning margin

Maccabi Shaarayim wins by 2+
13%
Holon Yermiyahu wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Maccabi Shaarayim 1+ goals
77%
Maccabi Shaarayim 2+ goals
43%
Maccabi Shaarayim 3+ goals
18%
Holon Yermiyahu 1+ goals
86%
Holon Yermiyahu 2+ goals
59%
Holon Yermiyahu 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Shaarayim (draw refunded)
37%
Holon Yermiyahu (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Shaarayim at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Holon Yermiyahu away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Shaarayim attack 1.83 + Holon Yermiyahu defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.47

Holon Yermiyahu attack 2.80 + Maccabi Shaarayim defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Maccabi Shaarayim scores more
29%
level
22%
Holon Yermiyahu scores more
49%

Holon Yermiyahu at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Holon Yermiyahu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Shaarayim vs Holon Yermiyahu

Holon Yermiyahu beat Maccabi Shaarayim 3-2 in State Cup on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Rehovot Marmorek Weisgal Synthetic in Rehovot.