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Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Petah Tikva — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hapoel Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva
12/27/2023Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 12HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva44%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Petah Tikva30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.50
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.20

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 25% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 35 away

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.15
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.09

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.30
Hapoel Petah Tikva
1.86

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw
70%
Maccabi Petah Tikva or Hapoel Petah Tikva
74%
Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva
56%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
22%
Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
78%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
44%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
19%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals
70%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals
34%
Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
59%
Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.15 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.09 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
44%
level
26%
Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more
30%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Petah Tikva

Maccabi Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Petah Tikva 2-0 in Ligat Ha'al on December 27, 2023.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.