Hapoel Petah Tikva 2–1 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Hapoel Petah Tikva

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1/23/2023

Liga Leumit · Round 21HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva33%

×Draw26%

Maccabi Petah Tikva41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hapoel Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchMaccabi Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.40

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.24

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.40

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 13% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 54 away

1.46

creates per match

1.89

0.90

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.46

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.89

allows per match

Hapoel Petah Tikva

0.90

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Petah Tikva ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw

59%

Hapoel Petah Tikva or Maccabi Petah Tikva

74%

Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva

67%

Winning margin

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

14%

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

71%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

35%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

13%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

75%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

41%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

45%

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.46, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 1.89, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.46 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.24

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.89 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

33%

level

26%

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

41%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff