Maccabi Petah Tikva 0–0 Hapoel Petah Tikva

Maccabi Petah Tikva

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hapoel Petah Tikva

4/10/2023

Liga Leumit · Promotion Group - 2HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva46%

×Draw25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Maccabi Petah TikvaExpected goals in this matchHapoel Petah Tikva

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.15

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.52

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.15

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 32% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 75 away

2.00

creates per match

1.27

1.02

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

2.00

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.27

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva

1.02

Hapoel Petah Tikva

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Hapoel Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Petah Tikva →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw

71%

Maccabi Petah Tikva or Hapoel Petah Tikva

75%

Draw or Hapoel Petah Tikva

54%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+

23%

Hapoel Petah Tikva wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals

78%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals

45%

Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals

20%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 1+ goals

68%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 2+ goals

32%

Hapoel Petah Tikva 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

61%

Hapoel Petah Tikva (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.02 · 57 matches

Hapoel Petah Tikva away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.03 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 2.00 + Hapoel Petah Tikva defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hapoel Petah Tikva attack 1.27 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more

46%

level

25%

Hapoel Petah Tikva scores more

29%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff