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Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Haifa — Ligat Ha'al 2019

Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikva
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
9/21/2024Ligat Ha'alLigat Ha'al · Round 4HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva38%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Haifa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.25
Hapoel Haifa
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 67 home / 117 away

creates per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.15
Hapoel Haifa
1.06

allows per match

Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.30
Hapoel Haifa
1.34

finishing

Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par
Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Maccabi Petah Tikva ↓

Hapoel Haifa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw
65%
Maccabi Petah Tikva or Hapoel Haifa
73%
Draw or Hapoel Haifa
62%

Winning margin

Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
17%
Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
71%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
36%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
13%
Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals
69%
Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals
33%
Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
52%
Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Maccabi Petah Tikva at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.30 · 67 matches

Hapoel Haifa away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.15 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.25

Hapoel Haifa attack 1.06 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
38%
level
27%
Hapoel Haifa scores more
35%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Maccabi Petah Tikva vs Hapoel Haifa

Maccabi Petah Tikva and Hapoel Haifa drew 0-0 in Ligat Ha'al on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at HaMoshava Stadium in Petach-Tikva.