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Hapoel Haifa vs Maccabi Petah Tikva — State Cup 2019

Hapoel Haifa
Hapoel Haifa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Maccabi Petah Tikva
Maccabi Petah Tikvaadvanced
3/5/2024State CupState Cup · Round of 16Sammy Ofer Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hapoel Haifa19%
×Draw25%
Maccabi Petah Tikva55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Haifa
0.80
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.56

Maccabi Petah Tikva creates 95% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hapoel Haifa
0.83
Maccabi Petah Tikva
1.46

allows per match

Hapoel Haifa
1.67
Maccabi Petah Tikva
0.77

finishing

Hapoel Haifa+0.00on par
Maccabi Petah Tikva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Haifa ↓

Maccabi Petah Tikva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–115%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hapoel Haifa or draw
45%
Hapoel Haifa or Maccabi Petah Tikva
75%
Draw or Maccabi Petah Tikva
81%

Winning margin

Hapoel Haifa wins by 2+
6%
Maccabi Petah Tikva wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Hapoel Haifa 1+ goals
55%
Hapoel Haifa 2+ goals
19%
Hapoel Haifa 3+ goals
5%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 1+ goals
79%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 2+ goals
46%
Maccabi Petah Tikva 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Haifa (draw refunded)
26%
Maccabi Petah Tikva (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Haifa at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Maccabi Petah Tikva away — creates 1.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Haifa attack 0.83 + Maccabi Petah Tikva defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.80

Maccabi Petah Tikva attack 1.46 + Hapoel Haifa defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Hapoel Haifa scores more
19%
level
25%
Maccabi Petah Tikva scores more
55%

Maccabi Petah Tikva at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Maccabi Petah Tikva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

State Cup: Hapoel Haifa 0–3 Maccabi Petah Tikva

Maccabi Petah Tikva beat Hapoel Haifa 3-0 in State Cup on March 5, 2024.

The match was played at Sammy Ofer Stadium in Haifa.